Metaculus vs PredictIt
A detailed head-to-head comparison of Metaculus and PredictIt — pricing, features, and which one wins for different use cases.
Metaculus
Reputation-based forecasting platform for serious probabilistic prediction
Metaculus is a forecasting platform — distinct from money-based prediction markets — where a community of forecasters makes probabilistic predictions on science, technology, geopolitics, AI, and world…
Full review →PredictIt
Long-running US political prediction market run for academic research
PredictIt is one of the longest-running prediction markets in the US, operated as a research project (historically in partnership with Victoria University of Wellington) and focused primarily on polit…
Full review →Feature Comparison
| Feature | Metaculus | PredictIt |
|---|---|---|
| Settlement Mechanism | Admin/community resolution | Platform resolution |
| Trading Model | Forecast aggregation (no money) | Order book (capped) |
| Collateral Token | None (reputation) | USD |
| Min Trade | N/A | $1 |
| Api Access | ✓ | ✓ |
| Embeddable Odds | ✓ | ✓ |
| Geo Restrictions | None | US-focused |
| Market Creation | Community-proposed | Platform-approved |
| Mobile App | ✗ | ✓ |
| Governance Token | ✗ | ✗ |
Metaculus Pricing
Metaculus
Free to trade
Free
- ✓Reputation-based forecasting
- ✓Science/tech/geopolitics/AI questions
- ✓Calibration scoring + track records
- ✓Community + Metaculus predictions
- ✓Free to participate
PredictIt Pricing
PredictIt
Free to trade (fees apply)
Free
- ✓Real USD markets
- ✓US political focus
- ✓5% profit fee + 5% withdrawal fee
- ✓Per-market position caps
- ✓Long historical record
Verdict: Which Should You Choose?
Metaculus is the better pick if you need rigorous, calibration-scored forecasting. PredictIt wins when long-running, widely-cited us political market. Both are production-ready — the right choice depends on your team's workflow and budget.