Platforms where users trade on the probability of real-world outcomes — elections, economic events, sports, and crypto milestones. Covers decentralized, regulated, and play-money prediction market protocols.
All tools independently reviewed. Updated 2026. Affiliate links marked *.
The world's largest decentralized prediction market for elections, crypto, sports, and world events
Polymarket is the dominant decentralized prediction market platform, running on Polygon and processing hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume during …
Permissionless prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on anything
Manifold Markets is a permissionless prediction market platform where any user can create a binary, multiple-choice, free-response, or numeric market on any top…
The first CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange — legally trade on economic and political outcomes in the US
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange in the United States, licensed after a multi-year legal process that concluded in 2023 and allowed it…
The original decentralized prediction market protocol on Ethereum with permissionless market creation
Augur is the first decentralized prediction market protocol, launched on Ethereum in 2018 after one of the largest ICOs of its era. It pioneered the concept of …
Decentralized prediction & sports-betting infrastructure powering many front-ends
Azuro is a decentralized betting and prediction-market protocol that functions as infrastructure rather than a single consumer app: it provides the on-chain liq…
The deepest peer-to-peer order book for sports prediction markets
SX Bet is a peer-to-peer betting exchange focused on sports, widely regarded as having the deepest order book for niche sports lines that larger venues ignore. …
Short-duration, fast-settling prediction markets on Base
Limitless is a prediction-market platform built on Base that specialises in short-duration contracts — markets that open and resolve on very fast timeframes, so…
Prediction markets for entertainment, pop culture, and internet events
Myriad Markets carves out a distinct lane in prediction markets by focusing on entertainment, pop culture, and internet-native events rather than the politics, …
Solana-native prediction markets with near-instant settlement
Drift BET is the prediction-market product from Drift, one of Solana's leading DeFi protocols (known primarily for perpetuals trading). It brings event and outc…
A dedicated prediction-market blockchain built on Polkadot/Substrate
Zeitgeist is a purpose-built blockchain for prediction markets and futarchy, developed on Polkadot's Substrate framework. Rather than being an app on a general-…
On-chain parimutuel and positional markets across crypto and events
Thales is a decentralized markets protocol that offers on-chain positional and parimutuel markets, letting users take yes/no positions on outcomes — crypto pric…
Decentralized on-chain sportsbook built on the Thales protocol
Overtime Markets is a decentralized, on-chain sports-betting platform built on top of the Thales protocol, offering a genuinely non-custodial alternative to tra…
Reputation-based forecasting platform for serious probabilistic prediction
Metaculus is a forecasting platform — distinct from money-based prediction markets — where a community of forecasters makes probabilistic predictions on science…
Long-running US political prediction market run for academic research
PredictIt is one of the longest-running prediction markets in the US, operated as a research project (historically in partnership with Victoria University of We…
Global prediction market offering both play-money and real-money modes
Futuur is a global prediction-market platform notable for offering both a play-money mode and a real-money (crypto) mode side by side, across a broad range of c…
Autonomous, multi-chain prediction market protocol with gamified forecasting
Polkamarkets is a decentralized, multi-chain prediction-market protocol that emphasises an autonomous, gamified forecasting experience across events in crypto, …
US-regulated sports prediction exchange with real-time tradable prices
Sporttrade is a US-regulated sports betting exchange that reframes sports wagering as trading: instead of taking fixed odds from a sportsbook, users buy and sel…
Zero-vig US peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange
Novig is a US peer-to-peer sports betting exchange whose pitch is right in its name: 'no vig' — it aims to eliminate the built-in margin (the vigorish) that tra…
Solana-based prediction and no-loss competition markets
Hedgehog Markets is a Solana-based prediction-market platform known for pioneering 'no-loss' competition-style markets alongside conventional peer-to-peer predi…
The public forecasting tournament from the Superforecasting researchers
Good Judgment Open is the public forecasting platform run by Good Judgment Inc., the organisation born out of the research that produced the concept of 'Superfo…
Enterprise-grade forecasting markets and prediction tournaments
Hypermind is a forecasting platform that runs prediction markets and forecasting tournaments primarily for enterprise, research, and public-interest application…
Prediction platforms split into two kinds. Real-money markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) let you trade on outcomes with capital, producing sharp, liquid probability estimates. Forecasting tournaments (Metaculus, Good Judgment Open) score participants on accuracy with reputation rather than money — no gambling dynamics, and they attract thoughtful domain experts for questions no liquid market would price. If you want to profit or read the sharpest odds, use a market; if you want rigorous long-horizon forecasts, use a tournament.
Crypto-native markets like Polymarket are decentralised, borderless, and non-custodial, but restricted for US persons. Regulated venues like Kalshi operate under a CFTC framework and are US-focused with proper compliance. Regulated sports exchanges (Sporttrade, Novig) bring the same model to sports betting legally in licensed US states. Your location and whether you want self-custody largely determine which venues are actually available to you.
Every prediction market must resolve outcomes, and how it does so is a real risk. Decentralised markets use oracles (Polymarket uses UMA's optimistic oracle) that can face disputes on ambiguous questions. The clearer and more objective the question ('will BTC close above X'), the cleaner the resolution; subjective or poorly-worded markets can resolve contentiously. Before trading a market, read exactly how it resolves and who decides.
A prediction market's odds are only as meaningful as its liquidity. Marquee questions on Polymarket have deep liquidity and tight, informative prices; obscure markets on smaller venues can have thin books where the 'probability' reflects one or two traders rather than the crowd. When using market odds as a signal, weight them by volume and liquidity — a well-traded market is a far better probability estimate than a thin one.